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Es werden drei verschiedene Vorhersagen gezeigt, da sie stark von den verschiedenen verfügbaren Vorhersagen der Sonnenwindparameter abhängen. The geomagnetic Hpo index is a Kp-like index with a time resolution of half an hour, called Hp30, and one hour, called Hp60 (Yamazaki et al., 2022). Besides that, the Hpo index is not capped at 9 like Kp but is an open-ended index that describes the strongest geomagnetic storms more nuanced than the three-hourly Kp, which is limited to the maximum value of 9.
Description
The figure below shows the 3-day nowcast and 3-day forecast of geomagnetic Kp and Hpo indices. The first panel shows the Hp30 index, the second panel the Hp60 index, and the third panel the Kp index. The vertical dashed line seperates nowcast (left) and forecast (right). The figure is updated every hour. The colors for Minor to Extreme values have been selected according to NOAA Geomagnetic Storm scales.
Forecast
We have trained a machine learning forecast model based on solar wind parameters (OMNI, high resolution) and sunspot number (OMNI, low resolution). Minute-by-minute values have been used for IMF Bx, IMF By, IMF Bz, Proton Density, Flow speed and hourly values for the sunspot number.
Download and Description
[English version only]
The model has been applied to sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC and solar wind forecast provided by EUHFORIA (v 1.0.3) is a 3D MHD heliosphere model.
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[English version only]
The model has been applied to solar wind forecast and sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC.
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[English version only]
The model has been applied to sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC and solar wind forecast provided by Austrian Space Weather Office (Helio4Cast).
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[English version only]
The model has been applied to recurrence solar wind forecast and sunspot number forecast for the next 72 hours. A Carrington rotation with a cycle length of 27.2753 days has been used. The historical data have been provided by NOAA SWPC.
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[English version only]
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