Forecast of ap30, ap60 & ap Indices
The forecast and website are currently being worked on and will be updated gradually!
The geomagnetic apo index is an ap-like (a linear equivalent of a three-hour Kp, see Table 3 in Matzka et al., 2021) index with a time resolution of half an hour, called ap30, and one hour, called ap60 (Yamazaki et al., 2022). Besides that, the apo index is not capped at 400 like ap but is an open-ended index that describes the strongest geomagnetic storms more nuanced than the three-hourly ap, which is limited to the maximum value of 400.
Description
The figure below shows the 3-day nowcast and 3-day forecast of geomagnetic apo and ap indices. The first panel shows the ap30 index, the second panel the ap60 index, and the third panel the ap index. The vertical dashed line separates nowcast (left) and forecast (right). The figure is updated every hour. The colors for Minor to Extreme values have been selected according to NOAA Geomagnetic Storm scales.
Forecast
We have trained a machine learning forecast model based on solar wind parameters (OMNI, high resolution) and sunspot number (OMNI, low resolution). Minute-by-minute values have been used for IMF Bx, IMF By, IMF Bz, Proton Density, Flow speed and hourly values for the sunspot number.
Based on EUHFORIA solar wind forecast
Based on SWPC solar wind forecast
Based on Helio4Cast solar wind forecast
Based on recurrence solar wind forecast
Download and Description
The model has been applied to sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC and solar wind forecast provided by EUHFORIA (v 1.0.3) is a 3D MHD heliosphere model.
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The model has been applied to solar wind forecast and sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC.
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The model has been applied to sunspot number forecast data for the next 72 hours provided by NOAA SWPC and solar wind forecast provided by Austrian Space Weather Office (Helio4Cast).
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The model has been applied to recurrence solar wind forecast and sunspot number forecast for the next 72 hours. A Carrington rotation with a cycle length of 27.2753 days has been used. The historical data have been provided by NOAA SWPC.
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